Examining Global Takeoff and Growth of Digital Wireless Phone Technology

The early phase of IT diffusion plays a critical role. Takeoff involving rapid growth of an IT is an acid test for whether the technology will succeed. We develop a new theory to understand global takeoff for digital wireless phones and technologies with related characteristics. We construct a multi-theoretical model that consists of standards, market competition, technology cost, and technology substitutions to explain takeoff and penetration during the growth phase. We test factors that drive takeoff times and further penetration growth during the growth phase after takeoff. The data are from 41 developed and developing countries. The results suggest that standards drive takeoff and penetration growth. Familiarity with wireless phones and an installed base of analog technology also explain faster takeoff times. Non-price factors are important drivers of penetration growth after takeoff too. Our results have implications on standards and competition policy settings for digital wireless phones.